FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 2 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Lean DD 74¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upR+1 (Impact Research (adjusted), Jun 11).Prior result · Toss-upR+1.6 in 2024.MarketD 74¢PollsR+12024 resultR+1.6
MarketD 74¢PollsR+12024R+1.6
Market favors Cognetti, but polls favor Bresnahan.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Bresnahan leads 1.1 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.