Pennsylvania 8th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 2 points in 2024 is now a coin flip, the Democrat narrowly ahead at 64¢.

Toss-up

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Toss-upD 64¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+1 — Impact Research, Jun 29.Prior result · Toss-upR+1.6 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 16¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 64¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+1

Impact Research ↗ B Jun 8 - 11 · n=500 LV D+1 D SPONSOR

Lake Research ↗ B+ Jun 18 - 23 · n=400 LV D+2 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+1.6

[[Rob Bresnahan (R)

50.8 — 49.2 · 2024 general election

def. Matt Cartwright (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.1 to 1

Paige Cognetti$4.61M

Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr.$5.23M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.