Oklahoma 4th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Rocco Bonacci (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 37-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 98¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 58.63-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Safe RR+36.98 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 98¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 98¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+36.98
Tom Cole (R)
65.25 — 28.27 · 2024 general election
def. Mary Brannon (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 58.63 to 1
Mitchell Jacob$65.3K
Tom Cole$3.83M
PULLED 08-25 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.