Mississippi 3rd District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Erik Kiehle (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — Republican and unopposed in 2024, priced at 98.4¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 5.29-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 98.4¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RUnopposed in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 98.4¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R unopposed
Michael Guest (R)
2024 general election
def. (). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 5.29 to 1
Michael A. Chiaradio$155.4K
Michael Guest$822.8K
PULLED 08-22 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.