Oklahoma U.S. Senate
OPEN SEAT
Also on the ballot: Ron Meinhardt (I), Curtis Stinnett (I) and Sevier White (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 30-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 98.6¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 174.14-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Safe RR+30.16 in 2020.Polling · Safe RR+24 — Cole Hargrave, Aug 20.Market · Safe RR 98.6¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 98.6¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+24
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+30.16
Inhofe, Jim (R)
62.91 — 32.75 · 2020 general election
def. Broyles, Abby (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 174.14 to 1
N'Kiyla Thomas$57.2K
Kevin Hern$9.95M
PULLED 08-25 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.