FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 30-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 96.9¢ today.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 174.14-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Safe RR+30.16 in 2020.Polling · Safe RR+24 (Cole Hargrave, Aug 6).Market · Safe RR 96.9¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.FundraisingR 174.14 to 12020 resultR+30.2PollsR+24MarketR 96.9¢
MarketR 96.9¢PollsR+242020R+30.2FundraisingR 174.14 to 1
Market and polls both favor Hern.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above