Pennsylvania 10th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Isabelle Harman (I), Steven Long (I), Fogel G. Shimp (I) and Karen Lynn Dalton (R).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
A seat that went Republican by 1 point in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.
Lean D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Lean DD 80¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Lean DD+6 — Normington Petts, May 20.Prior result · Toss-upR+1.2 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 80¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+6
PPP ↗ B
Nov 18 - 19, 25 · n=549 RV
D+4
D SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+1.2
Scott Perry (R)
50.6 — 49.4 · 2024 general election
def. Janelle Stelson (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.2 to 1
Janelle Stelson$6.36M
Scott Perry$5.19M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.