FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 1 point in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Lean DD 80¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upD+3 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 20).Prior result · Toss-upR+1.2 in 2024.MarketD 80¢PollsD+32024 resultR+1.2
MarketD 80¢PollsD+32024R+1.2
Market and polls both favor Stelson.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Normington Petts ↗C-Apr 20 to 23 · n=400 RVD+6Stelson sponsorD+6 · Stelson sponsor · counts as D+4 at half weight
PPP ↗BNov 18 to 19 · n=549 RVD+4Republicans Against Perry sponsorD+4 · Republicans Against Perry sponsor · counts as D+2 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Earlier polls · 1
PPP ↗BJul 10 to 11 · n=559 votersD+3House Majority PAC sponsorD+3 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as D+1 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+1.2
Scott Perry (R)
50.6% to 49.4% · 2024 general election
def. Janelle Stelson (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Stelson leads 1.2 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.