Idaho Governor — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market and the latest general-election poll carry this seat — Idaho has no verified prior result on file.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Safe RR+21 — Change Research, Aug 14.Market · Safe RR 99.8¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 99.8¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+21

Change Research ↗ C- Jul 28 - 30 · n=606 LV R+21 D SPONSOR

Change Research ↗ C- Jul 28 - 30, 26 · n=606 LV R+21 D SPONSOR

Change Research (D) ↗ July 28–30, 2026 · n=1,213 LV R+21 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

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No verified prior result

The last general election in this seat has not been imported from an official state canvass, so the signal has no baseline.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Terri Pickens$72.0K

Brad Little$964.7K

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 07-31 · STATE FILING

Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.