FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 40-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 98.3¢ today.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Likely RR+14.3 (average of 2 pollsters, Sep 16).Market · Safe RR 98.3¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+40.23 in 2022.PollsR+14.3MarketR 98.3¢2022 resultR+40.2
MarketR 98.3¢PollsR+14.32022R+40.2
Market and polls both favor Little.
Polling moved 11 points toward the Democrat over 48 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Change Research (D) ↗July 28 to 30, 2026 · n=1,213 LVR+21Stegner sponsorR+21 · Stegner sponsor · counts as R+23 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+40.2
Brad Little (R)
60.5% to 20.3% · 2022 general election
def. Stephen Heidt (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.