Robert J. Wittman · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Toss-up

Wittman is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Toss-up. The market has Wittman at 48¢ against Taylor's 54¢, down 5¢ since August 3. The polling average has Taylor ahead by 0.5 points, and Wittman leads 1.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Wittman · Republican contract

48.0¢

▼ 5.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Robert J. Wittman by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 66¢ · low 45¢Oct 12

Robert J. WittmanRepublican · incumbent

48.0¢

Shannon TaylorDemocratic

54.0¢

206,856 traded · 128,729 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Wittman v Taylor

Metric by metric

Wittman

Taylor

48.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

54.0¢

$4.05M

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$2.14M

$4.29M

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$1.00M

46%

Latest pollWash. Post/Schar · Sep 28

50%

U.S. Representativesince 2007

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Virginia 1st District

Polling average

D+0.5

Average of 3 pollsters, August 9 to September 28.

Prior result

R+12.8

2024 general election, won by Robert J. Wittman.

Fundraising

1.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.