Arkansas 2nd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 18-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 90¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upD+3 — 2040 Strat. Group, Aug 5.Prior result · Likely RR+17.87 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 90¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 90¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+3

2040 Strat. Group ↗ Apr 28 - May 8 · n=660 LV D+3 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+17.87

J. French Hill (R)

58.93 — 41.07 · 2024 general election

def. Marcus A. Jones (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

3.8 to 1

Chris Jones$1.17M

French Hill$4.42M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.