Also on the ballot: Richard Bennett (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
No market prices this seat. The most recent general-election poll puts the Democrat ahead by 11 points — a 13-point Democratic hold in 2022.
Likely D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Likely DD+11 — Fox News (Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research), Aug 12.Prior result · Likely DD+13.24 in 2022.
Signal clarityLow — no market priceas of 2026-08-12
Polling moved 3 points toward the Republican over 21 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
—
No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+11
UNH ↗ C
Jul 15 - 20 · n=1,178 LV
D+14
INDEPENDENT
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+13.24
Janet Mills (D)
55.69 — 42.45 · 2022 general election
def. Paul LePage (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
—
Hannah Pingree$854.2K
Robert Charles$179.0K
PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 07-14 · STATE FILING
Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.