Illinois 11th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 14 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 98¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 7-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Likely RR+13.6 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 98¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+13.6

Jerry Evans (R)

50.7 — 37.1 · 2024 general election

def. Susan Hathaway-Altman (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 7 to 1

Bill Foster$2.18M

Jeff Walter$311.4K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.