Florida 4th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Todd Schaefer (I) and Mike Sell (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 15-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 89¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Likely RR+14.54 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 89¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 89¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+14.54
Aaron Bean (R)
57.26 — 42.72 · 2024 general election
def. LaShonda Holloway (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
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PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 07-29 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.