California Governor — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 18-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 96.2¢ today.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 96.2¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+18.4 in 2022.Polling · Lean DD+9 — Wolfson, Aug 24.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

Polling moved 17 points toward the Republican over 39 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 96.2¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+9

Wolfson ↗ Aug 14 - 16, 26 · n=912 RV D+9 R SPONSOR

Berkeley ↗ A- Aug 3 - 9, 26 · n=2,310 LV D+18 INDEPENDENT

PPIC ↗ A Jun 29 - Jul 6, 26 · n=1,003 LV D+26 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+18.4

Gavin Newsom (D)

59.2 — 40.8 · 2022 general election

def. Brian Dahle (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.5 to 1

Xavier Becerra$17.14M

Steve Hilton$11.82M

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 06-30 · STATE FILING

Total receipts this cycle.