FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: an 18-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 96.8¢ today.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 96.8¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+17.5 (average of 5 pollsters, Oct 2).Prior result · Likely DD+18.4 in 2022.MarketD 96.8¢PollsD+17.52022 resultD+18.4
MarketD 96.8¢PollsD+17.52022D+18.4
Market and polls both favor Becerra.
Polling moved 16 points toward the Republican over 22 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
SurveyUSA ↗A+Sep 15 to 20 · n=742 LVD+21.9Independent
Berkeley ↗A-Sep 15 to 20 · n=4,512 LVD+25Independent
Average of the latest poll from each of 5 pollsters in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.