California 21st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 5-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 95.9¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 95.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+5.2 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 95.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+5.2

Jim Costa (D)

52.6 — 47.4 · 2024 general election

def. Michael Maher (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

3.9 to 1

Jim Costa$1.34M

Kyle Kirkland$339.0K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.