Colorado 8th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by less than a point in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean DD 80¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upR+0.73 in 2024.

Signal clarityLow — no pollingas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 80¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+0.73

Gabe Evans (R)

48.95 — 48.22 · 2024 general election

def. Yadira Caraveo (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.2 to 1

Manny Rutinel$4.34M

Gabe Evans$5.39M

PULLED 08-03 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.