DEFENDED SEATLean RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +11.9 to Trump +13.3 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Anna Paulina Luna (R) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in May 2026.
PresidentialR+11.9→R+13.3Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+11.9) and the new (R+13.3). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 75¢ Republican.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+2 (average of 3 pollsters, Aug 27).Market · Lean RR 75¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Lean RR+9.65 in 2024.PollsR+2MarketR 75¢2024 resultR+9.7
MarketR 75¢PollsR+22024R+9.7
Market and polls both favor Luna.
Polling moved 8 points toward the Democrat over 21 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+2
Hart Research ↗A-Aug 25 to 27 · n=500 LVD+5D sponsorD+5 · D sponsor · counts as D+3 at half weight
GQR ↗AAug 4 to 6 · n=500 LVR+3Gray sponsorR+3 · Gray sponsor · counts as R+5 at half weight
PPP ↗BMay 19 to 20 · n=616 LVR+2Sponsor unconfirmed (reported as a Democratic internal)R+2 · Sponsor unconfirmed (reported as a Democratic internal) · counts as R+4 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+9.7
Anna Paulina Luna (R)
54.8% to 45.2% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +11.9 to Trump +13.3 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
def. Whitney Fox (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 29, 2026; Luna leads 2.6 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.