Florida 13th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Tony D'Arrigo (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 10-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 74¢ today.
Lean R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Toss-upR+3 — GQR, Aug 14.Market · Lean RR 74¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Lean RR+9.65 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 8¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 74¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+3
GQR ↗ A
Aug 4 - 6 · n=500 LV
R+3
D SPONSOR
PPP ↗ B
May 19 - 20 · n=616 LV
R+2
D SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+9.65
Anna Paulina Luna (R)
54.82 — 45.17 · 2024 general election
def. Whitney Fox (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
2.6 to 1
Leela Gray$1.22M
Anna Paulina Luna$3.23M
PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 07-29 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.