Elections Intelligence

Florida 13th District

DEFENDED SEAT
LEAN R
LG
Leela Gray Democratic · Challenger
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
DEMOCRAT 29¢REPUBLICAN 74¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Anna Paulina Luna Republican · Incumbent
Also on the ballot: Tony D'Arrigo (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 10-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 74¢ today.

Lean R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Toss-upR+3 — GQR, Aug 14. Market · Lean RR 74¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold. Prior result · Lean RR+9.65 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 8¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 74¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+3
GQR ↗ A Aug 4 - 6 · n=500 LV R+3 D SPONSOR
Fabrizio ↗ A- Aug 4 - 6 · n=400 LV R+8 R SPONSOR
PPP ↗ B May 19 - 20 · n=616 LV R+2 D SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+9.65

Anna Paulina Luna (R)

54.82 — 45.17 · 2024 general election

def. Whitney Fox (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
2.6 to 1
Leela Gray$1.22M
Anna Paulina Luna$3.23M

PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 07-29 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 08-18 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 R settled · D settled · I settled COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄