California 24th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 25-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 98.7¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 98.7¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Safe DD+25.4 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean DD 8.12-to-1 in receipts.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 98.7¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+25.4

Salud Carbajal (D)

62.7 — 37.3 · 2024 general election

def. Thomas Cole (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 8.12 to 1

Salud O. Carbajal$1.65M

Bob Smith$203.3K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.