DEFENDED SEATSafe RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +32.7 to Trump +30.1 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Troy Balderson (R) has held this seat since September 2018, after a special election, and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in October 2025.
PresidentialR+32.7→R+30.1Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+32.7) and the new (R+30.1). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in October 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 96.8¢ Republican.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 20.66-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 96.8¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+37.01 in 2024.FundraisingR 20.66 to 1MarketR 96.8¢2024 resultR+37.0
MarketR 96.8¢2024R+37.0FundraisingR 20.66 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Balderson.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
—
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+37.0
Troy Balderson (R)
68.5% to 31.5% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +32.7 to Trump +30.1 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
def. Jerrad Christian (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.