Michigan 10th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 7 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean DD 67¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+2 — PPP, Jan 30.Prior result · Lean RR+6.7 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 7¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 67¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+2

PPP ↗ B Jan 16 - 17 · n=592 RV D+2 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+6.7

John James (R)

51.1 — 44.4 · 2024 general election

def. Carl Marlinga (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.2 to 1

Christina Hines$1.21M

Michael Bouchard$1.41M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.