Bill Hill · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Hill is the independent challenger for a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Hill at 12¢, up 2¢ since August 3. The polling average has Begich ahead by 8.5 points, and Begich leads 4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Hill · independent contract

12.0¢

▲ 2.0¢since August 3

Aug 342 daily readings · high 19¢ · low 9¢Oct 12

Bill Hillindependent

12.0¢

Republican lineNo candidate is named on this contract.

88.0¢

Democratic lineNo candidate is named on this contract.

0.9¢

Eric HafnerDemocratic

no contract on this candidate in the market

Nicholas J. Begich IIIRepublican

no contract on this candidate in the market

67,909 traded · 27,032 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Hill v Begich

Metric by metric

Hill

Begich

12.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

No contract on Nicholas J. Begich III.

$1.34M

RaisedFEC, through July 29

$5.47M

$515.9K

Cash on handFEC, through July 29

$3.12M

47.3%

Latest pollAlaska Survey Research · Oct 3

52.7%

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2025

The 2026 race

Alaska At-Large District

Polling average

Begich +8.5

Average of 3 pollsters, September 11 to October 3.

Prior result

R+2.4

2024 general election, won by Nicholas J. Begich III.

Fundraising

4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.