Iowa 3rd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 4 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Toss-up

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean DD 79¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upR+3.82 in 2024.Polling · Lean RR+6 — Ragnar, Apr 29.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 79¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+6

Ragnar ↗ B Mar 12 - 14 · n=400 LV R+6 R SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+3.82

Zachary Nunn (R)

51.77 — 47.94 · 2024 general election

def. Lanon Baccam (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.1 to 1

Sarah Trone Garriott$5.29M

Zachary Nunn$4.87M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.