Nathan Johnson

CHALLENGER Likely R to Lean R Competitive underdog

What the Signal reads

Lean R

Johnson is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Johnson at 25¢ against Middleton's 73¢, up 16¢ since August 3. The polling average has Middleton ahead by 3 points, and Middleton leads 3.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Johnson · Democratic contract

25.0¢

▲ 16.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Nathan Johnson by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 26¢ · low 9¢Oct 12

Nathan JohnsonDemocratic

25.0¢

Mayes MiddletonRepublican

73.0¢

14,836 traded · 5,910 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Johnson v Middleton

Metric by metric

Johnson

Middleton

25.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

73.0¢

$1.09M

RaisedState filings, through September 24

$3.37M

$1.02M

Cash on handState filings, through September 24

$2.13M

43%

Latest pollTexas Public Opinion Research, D-leaning firm · Sep 22

46%

No office on file

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Texas Attorney General

Polling average

R+3

Average of 3 pollsters, September 11 to September 22.

Prior result

R+9.7

2022 general election, won by Ken Paxton.

Fundraising

3.1 to 1

Raised, through September 24.