Elections Intelligence

Rebecca Cooke

WI-3U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Lean D Favored
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Lean D

Cooke is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Cooke at 75¢ against Orden's 26¢, up 12¢ since August 3. The polling average has Cooke ahead by 1.3 points, and Cooke leads 1.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Cooke · Democratic contract
75.0¢
▲ 12.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Rebecca Cooke by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 79¢ · low 63¢Oct 12
Rebecca CookeDemocratic
75.0¢
Derrick Van OrdenRepublican · incumbent
26.0¢

139,188 traded · 36,638 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Cooke v Orden

Metric by metric
Cooke
Orden
75.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
26.0¢
$8.60M
RaisedFEC, through July 22
$7.53M
$1.83M
Cash on handFEC, through July 22
$4.68M
50%
Latest pollFM3 Research, House Majority PAC sponsor · Jun 25
46%
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2023

The 2026 race

Wisconsin 3rd District
Polling average
D+1.3

Average of 3 pollsters, October 15 to June 25.

Prior result
R+2.7

2024 general election, won by Derrick Van Orden.

Fundraising
1.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 22.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.