OPEN SEATSafe R to Likely RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedA Utah judge struck down the Legislature's map for violating Proposition 4, the anti-gerrymandering measure voters passed, and on Nov. 10, 2025, picked a map submitted by the plaintiffs for 2026. It becomes much more Republican, going from Trump +19.3 to Trump +41.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Mike Kennedy (R) has held this seat since 2025 and is not running; the district was redrawn in November 2025.
PresidentialR+19.3→R+41.4Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+19.3) and the new (R+41.4). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in November 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 99.6¢ Republican.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 30.59-to-1 in receipts.Polling · Likely RR+18.1 (Lighthoust Research, Sep 15).Prior result · Safe RR+32.77 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 99.6¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.FundraisingR 30.59 to 1PollsR+18.12024 resultR+32.8MarketR 99.6¢
MarketR 99.6¢PollsR+18.12024R+32.8FundraisingR 30.59 to 1
Market and polls both favor Maloy.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+32.8
Mike Kennedy (R)
66.4% to 33.6% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesA Utah judge struck down the Legislature's map for violating Proposition 4, the anti-gerrymandering measure voters passed, and on Nov. 10, 2025, picked a map submitted by the plaintiffs for 2026. It becomes much more Republican, going from Trump +19.3 to Trump +41.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Glenn J. Wright (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.