Byron Donalds
FLWhat the Signal reads
Donalds is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Donalds at 78¢ against Jolly's 23¢, down 4¢ since July 31. The polling average has Donalds ahead by 5.7 points, and Donalds leads 1.4 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Byron Donalds by name.
2,702,129 traded · 1,894,395 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Donalds v Jolly
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Florida GovernorAverage of 6 pollsters, September 21 to October 7.
2022 general election, won by Ron DeSantis / Jeanette Nuñez.
Raised, through October 2.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+29.2 → R+30.2
Florida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +29.2 to Trump +30.2 in the 2024 presidential vote).