Kentucky 1st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 49-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 97¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean RR 16-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 97¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+49.4 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 97¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+49.4

James Comer (R)

74.7 — 25.3 · 2024 general election

def. Erin Marshall (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 16 to 1

Drew Williams$118.8K

James Comer$1.90M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.