Tom Cotton
ARWhat the Signal reads
Likely R
Cotton is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Cotton at 94.6¢ against Shoffner's 6.5¢, down 1.1¢ since July 31. The polling average has Cotton ahead by 7.9 points, and Cotton leads 2.7 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Cotton · Republican contract
94.6¢
▼ 1.1¢since July 31
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Tom Cotton by name.
215,555 traded · 169,116 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Cotton v Shoffner
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Arkansas U.S. SenatePolling average
R+7.9
Average of 3 pollsters, August 12 to October 4.
Prior result
Cotton +33.1
Cotton won 66.5% to 33.5% over Ricky Dale Harrington, Jr. (Libertarian) (2020).
Fundraising
2.7 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.