FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 21-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 85¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Lean RR+6 (Tavern Research, May 25).Market · Likely RR 85¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+21.28 in 2024.PollsR+6MarketR 85¢2024 resultR+21.3
MarketR 85¢PollsR+62024R+21.3
Market and polls both favor Baumgartner.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 15, 2026; Baumgartner leads 4.3 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.