Washington 5th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 21-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 82¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Lean RR+6 — Tavern Research, Jun 1.Market · Likely RR 82¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+21.28 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 82¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+6

Tavern Research ↗ May 18 - 25 · n=578 LV R+6 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+21.28

Michael Baumgartner (R)

60.57 — 39.29 · 2024 general election

def. Carmela Conroy (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

4.4 to 1

Carmela Conroy$396.2K

Michael Baumgartner$1.74M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.