Florida 17th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Michael J. Quirk (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 28-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 95.9¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe RR+27.8 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 95.9¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 95.9¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+27.8
Greg Steube (R)
63.9 — 36.1 · 2024 general election
def. Manny Lopez (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
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PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 07-29 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.