Kentucky 4th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 99-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 93¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean RR 37.76-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 93¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+99.2 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 93¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+99.2

Thomas Massie (R)

99.6 — 0.4 · 2024 general election

def. Write-in (other). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 37.76 to 1

Melissa Claire Strange$94.5K

Ed Gallrein$3.57M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.