North Carolina 8th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Bo Whitehead (G).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 19-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 93.9¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 25.76-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Likely RR+19.22 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 93.9¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 93.9¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+19.22
Mark Harris (R)
59.61 — 40.39 · 2024 general election
def. Justin E. Dues (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 25.76 to 1
Colby Watson$39.6K
Mark Harris$1.02M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.