Elections Intelligence

California 4th District

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE D
Eric Jones Democratic · Challenger
KALSHI PERSON MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
THOMPSON 75¢26¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Mike Thompson Democratic · Incumbent
FTP RACE SIGNAL

Nothing live is reporting on this seat. Its last general election was a 33-point Democratic hold in 2024.

Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe DD+33 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-26
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+33

Mike Thompson (D)

66.5 — 33.5 · 2024 general election

def. John Munn (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
2 to 1
Eric Jones$8.38M
Mike Thompson$4.20M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Top-two primary 06-02 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 Top-two field settled · both advancers on the November ballot COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄