Elections Intelligence

Jace Yarbrough

TX-32U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Likely R Likely to win
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Yarbrough is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Yarbrough at 89¢ against Barrios's 12¢, up 7¢ since August 3. Yarbrough leads 8.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Yarbrough · Republican contract
89.0¢
▲ 7.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Jace Yarbrough by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 90.9¢ · low 79¢Oct 12
Jace YarbroughRepublican
89.0¢
Dan BarriosDemocratic
12.0¢

29,385 traded · 14,507 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Yarbrough v Barrios

Metric by metric
Yarbrough
Barrios
89.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
12.0¢
$865.9K
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$96.5K
$125.4K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$6.0K
No office on file
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Texas 32nd District
Prior result
D+23.5

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Julie Johnson.

Fundraising
8.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.