Aaron Flint
MT-1What the Signal reads
Lean R
Flint is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Flint at 72¢ against Forstag's 29¢, up 7¢ since July 31. The polling average has Forstag ahead by 1 point, and the two campaigns have raised about the same.
The market
Flint · Republican contract
72.0¢
▲ 7.0¢since July 31
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Aaron Flint by name.
421,164 traded · 361,681 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Flint v Forstag
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Montana 1st DistrictPolling average
D+1
Average of 3 pollsters, September 10 to September 24.
Prior result
R+7.7
2024 general election, won by Ryan K. Zinke.
Fundraising
1 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.