OPEN SEATToss-upREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. The Austin-to-San Antonio district is replaced with one built mostly from other San Antonio-area districts. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +33.6 to Trump +10.5 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Greg Casar (D) has held this seat since 2023 and is not running; the district was redrawn in September 2025.
PresidentialD+33.6→R+10.5Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+33.6) and the new (R+10.5). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in September 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 62¢ Democratic.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Safe DD+34.73 in 2024.Market · Toss-upD 62¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upR+3 (Normington Petts (adjusted), Aug 31).2024 resultD+34.7MarketD 62¢PollsR+3
MarketD 62¢PollsR+32024D+34.7
Market favors Garcia, but polls favor Cruz.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+3
Normington Petts ↗C-Aug 27 to 31 · n=500 LVR+1House Majority PAC sponsorR+1 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as R+3 at half weight
The latest poll on file. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+34.7
Greg Casar (D)
67.4% to 32.6% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. The Austin-to-San Antonio district is replaced with one built mostly from other San Antonio-area districts. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +33.6 to Trump +10.5 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Steven Wright (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Cruz leads 1.1 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.