Texas 35th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 35-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 64¢ today.

Toss-up

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Safe DD+34.73 in 2024.Market · Toss-upD 64¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.

Signal clarityLow — prior and market disagreeas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 6¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 64¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+34.73

Greg Casar (D)

67.36 — 32.64 · 2024 general election

def. Steven Wright (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.1 to 1

Johnny Garcia$931.7K

Carlos De La Cruz$1.05M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.