South Dakota U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

No market prices this seat. The most recent general-election poll puts the Republican ahead by 23 points — a 31-point Republican hold in 2020.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Safe RR+23 — NRSC, Aug 6.Prior result · Safe RR+31.48 in 2020.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-06

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

—

No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+23

NRSC ↗ Jul 6 - 9 · n=500 LV R+23 R SPONSOR

Public Opinion Strategies (R) ↗ July 6–9, 2026 · n=500 LV R+23 R SPONSOR

PPP ↗ B May 29 - 30 · n=726 RV R+4 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+31.48

Rounds, Mike (R)

65.74 — 34.26 · 2020 general election

def. Ahlers, Dan (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

4.1 to 1

Mike Rounds$3.18M

Brian Bengs$782.0K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.