Virginia U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 12-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 98¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 98¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+17.5 — Public Sentiment Inst., Jun 19.Prior result · Likely DD+12.08 in 2020.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 7 points toward the Republican over 45 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 98¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+17.5

Public Sentiment Inst. ↗ Jun 12 - 16 · n=996 LV D+17.5 D SPONSOR

Public Sentiment Inst. ↗ Jun 12 - 16 · n=996 LV D+17 D SPONSOR

The Public Sentiment Institute ↗ June 12–16, 2026 · n=996 LV D+18 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+12.08

Warner, Mark R. (D)

55.99 — 43.91 · 2020 general election

def. Gade, Daniel M. (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Mark R. Warner$17.89M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.