FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 12-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 97.5¢ today.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 97.5¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+17.5 (Public Sentiment Inst., Jun 16).Prior result · Likely DD+12.08 in 2020.Fundraising · Lean DD 47.55-to-1 in receipts.MarketD 97.5¢PollsD+17.52020 resultD+12.1FundraisingD 47.55 to 1
MarketD 97.5¢PollsD+17.52020D+12.1FundraisingD 47.55 to 1
Market and polls both favor Warner.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 7 points toward the Republican over 42 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above