Marcy Kaptur
OH-9What the Signal reads
Kaptur is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Kaptur at 71¢ against Merrin's 28¢, unchanged since August 3. The polling average has Merrin ahead by 2 points, and Kaptur leads 2.8 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Marcy Kaptur by name.
89,195 traded · 55,188 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Kaptur v Merrin
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Ohio 9th DistrictAverage of 2 pollsters, April 20 to September 23.
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Marcy Kaptur.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+6.7 → R+10.6
Ohio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. The Toledo-based district keeps its core, but the counties attached to it change. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +6.7 to Trump +10.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.