New York 3rd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 4-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 92¢ today.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 92¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+3.57 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 92¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+3.57

Thomas R. Suozzi (D)

51.68 — 48.11 · 2024 general election

def. Michael J. LiPetri, Jr. (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

3.3 to 1

Thomas R. Suozzi$5.46M

Michael J. LiPetri Jr.$1.67M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.