Elections Intelligence

Dan Osborn

NEU.S. Senate S architectural icon I
CHALLENGER Safe R to Lean RThe seat No consensus
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Lean R

Osborn is the independent challenger for a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Osborn at 28¢ against Ricketts's 74¢, unchanged since July 31. The polling average has Ricketts ahead by 1 point, and Ricketts leads 1.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Osborn · independent contract
28.0¢
Unchangedsince July 31
Jul 3148 daily readings · high 33¢ · low 27¢Oct 12
Dan Osbornindependent
28.0¢
Pete RickettsRepublican · incumbent
74.0¢
Mike Marvinother
no contract on this candidate in the market

2,443,705 traded · 1,382,879 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Osborn v Ricketts

Metric by metric
Osborn
Ricketts
28.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
74.0¢
$5.70M
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$11.23M
$2.42M
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$6.91M
48%
Latest pollYouGov · Oct 3
47%
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Senatorsince 2023

The 2026 race

Nebraska U.S. Senate
Polling average
Ricketts +1

Average of 4 pollsters, September 13 to October 3.

Prior result
R+38.3

2020 general election, won by Ben Sasse.

Fundraising
1.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.