Indiana 5th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 19-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 87¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upR+2 — Impact Research, Aug 5.Market · Likely RR 87¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+18.58 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 87¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+2

Impact Research ↗ B Jul 16 - 20 · n=400 LV · HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP R+2 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+18.58

Victoria Spartz (R)

56.6 — 38.02 · 2024 general election

def. Deborah A. Pickett (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

2.3 to 1

J.D. Ford$582.1K

Victoria Spartz$1.33M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.