Montana U.S. Senate
OPEN SEAT
Also on the ballot: Alani Bankhead (D) and Kyle Austin (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
No market prices this seat. The most recent general-election poll puts the Republican ahead by 15 points — a 10-point Republican hold in 2020.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Lean RR+10.02 in 2020.Fundraising · Lean RR 33.74-to-1 in receipts.Polling · Likely RR+15 — Hart Research, Aug 13.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-13
Polling moved 13 points toward the Republican over 22 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
—
No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+15
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+10.02
Daines, Steve (R)
55.01 — 44.99 · 2020 general election
def. Bullock, Steve (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 33.74 to 1
Alani Bankhead$58.8K
Kurt Alme$1.98M
Seth Bodnar$3.24M
PULLED 08-22 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.