Colorado 3rd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 5-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 67¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upR+1 — Keating Research, Jul 30.Prior result · Toss-upR+4.98 in 2024.Market · Lean RR 67¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 67¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+1

Keating Research ↗ B Jul 21 - 23 · n=500 LV R+1 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+4.98

Jeff Hurd (R)

50.8 — 45.82 · 2024 general election

def. Adam Frisch (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

5 to 1

Dwayne Romero$716.3K

Jeff Hurd$3.55M

PULLED 08-03 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.