Elections Intelligence

U.S. House H architectural icon House 2026

227SEATS LEAN D OR BETTER10 toss-ups · 198 Lean R or better218
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Seats worth monitoring

Republican-held House seats that carry risk 51
Safe D
OPEN UT-1 R 2.3¢ OPEN CA-41 R 4.3¢ CA-1 R 6.6¢
3
Likely D
OPEN CA-48 R 8.1¢ IA-1 R 13¢
2
Lean D
OPEN NE-2 R 8.1¢ NJ-7 R 9.6¢ CA-22 R 12¢ PA-7 R 14¢ VA-2 R 14¢ CO-8 R 15¢ AZ-6 R 17¢ TX-15 R 17¢ OH-7 R 19¢ PA-10 R 22¢ OPEN AZ-1 R 23¢ OPEN NC-11 R 24¢ WI-3 R 26¢ PA-8 R 27¢ OPEN MI-10 R 35¢
15
Toss-up
IA-3 R 23¢ MI-7 R 41¢ NY-17 R 42¢ OPEN IA-2 R 44¢ VA-1 R 48¢ MI-4 R 54¢ FL-27 R 64¢ PA-1 R 64¢
8
Lean R
WI-1 R 64¢ OPEN TX-23 R 66¢ OPEN FL-7 R 67¢ AZ-2 R 70¢ OPEN KY-6 R 70¢ CO-3 R 72¢ OPEN MT-1 R 72¢ NV-2 R 73¢ OPEN SC-1 R 73¢ CO-4 R 74¢ MO-2 R 74¢ OPEN NY-21 R 74¢ CO-5 R 75¢ FL-13 R 75¢ MN-1 R 77¢ OH-15 R 77¢ VA-5 R 77¢ NJ-2 R 82¢ IN-5 R 83¢ AR-2 R 84¢ OPEN FL-16 R 84¢ OPEN FL-11 R 88¢ NE-1 —
23
Likely R
none priced here
0
Safe R
none priced here
0
Democratic-held House seats that carry risk 18
Safe D
none priced here
0
Likely D
none priced here
0
Lean D
FL-14 D 67¢ NC-1 D 67¢ OH-9 D 71¢ OPEN FL-25 D 76¢ TX-34 D 85¢ OH-1 D 87¢ WA-3 D 91.1¢ NM-2 D 92.9¢ OPEN CA-6 —
9
Toss-up
OPEN FL-22 D 55¢ OPEN TX-35 D 62¢
2
Lean R
AL-2 D 27¢ FL-9 D 30¢ OPEN ME-2 D 35¢
3
Likely R
OPEN LA-6 D 6.1¢ OPEN TX-32 D 12¢ OPEN TN-9 D 14¢ OPEN TX-9 D 20¢
4
Safe R
none priced here
0

Redrawn for 2026

139 districts vote on new lines
The same ballots, two mapsEach district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines and again on the new lines. The same ballots, two maps. TN-9 went from Harris +43.4 to Trump +21.1 — a 64.5-point move. 2 districts — TN-2, TX-15 — were redrawn without their margins moving, and are on the file from their states' own map comparisons. 17 districts change presidential winner · 11 toward Republicans, 6 toward Democrats
  • D+50EVENR+50 MOVE MEMBER AT THE REDRAWThe member at the redrawWhere the member has since retired or is running elsewhere, the name is still theirs — the district is what changed.
  • TN-9 +64.5 Steve Cohen
  • TX-9 +63.9 Al Green
  • LA-6 +45.1 Cleo Fields
  • TX-35 +44.1 Greg Casar
  • UT-1 −43.6 Blake Moore
  • TX-32 +41.6 Julie Johnson
  • CA-1 −37.1 Doug LaMalfa
  • AL-2 +22.5 Shomari Figures
  • UT-3 +22.1 Mike Kennedy
  • FL-9 +21.3 Darren Soto
  • TN-8 −21.0 David Kustoff
  • CA-2 +20.6 Jared Huffman
  • TN-4 −19.7 Scott DesJarlais
  • AL-1 −19.3 Barry Moore
  • CA-42 +19.3 Robert Garcia
  • FL-12 −19.2 Gus Bilirakis
  • CA-48 −18.7 Darrell Issa
  • FL-14 +18.2 Kathy Castor
  • D+50EVENR+50 MOVE MEMBER AT THE REDRAWThe member at the redrawWhere the member has since retired or is running elsewhere, the name is still theirs — the district is what changed.
  • LA-4 −17.9 Mike Johnson
  • CA-7 +16.9 Doris Matsui
  • CA-4 +16.7 Mike Thompson
  • FL-26 −16.6 Mario Diaz-Balart
  • LA-2 −16.0 Troy Carter
  • FL-22 +15.9 Lois Frankel
  • TX-18 −15.2 VacantVacant at the redrawSylvester Turner, whose term ended March 4, 2025. No member held this district on the day the map changed.
  • FL-25 +14.4 Debbie Wasserman Schultz
  • CA-3 −14.0 Kevin Kiley
  • CA-9 −13.2 Josh Harder
  • FL-18 −12.4 Scott Franklin
  • TX-25 −12.2 Roger Williams
  • TX-36 −11.8 Brian Babin
  • CA-50 +11.3 Scott Peters
  • TX-11 −11.1 August Pfluger
  • TX-29 −10.0 Sylvia Garcia
  • OH-1 +8.9 Greg Landsman
  • CA-13 −5.8 Adam Gray
103 more districts were redrawn with smaller shifts
  • D+50EVENR+50 MOVE MEMBER AT THE REDRAWThe member at the redrawWhere the member has since retired or is running elsewhere, the name is still theirs — the district is what changed.
  • CA-40 +9.9 Young Kim
  • TX-14 −9.8 Randy Weber
  • CA-8 +9.5 John Garamendi
  • LA-3 −8.8 Clay Higgins
  • FL-15 +8.7 Laurel Lee
  • TN-6 −8.7 John Rose
  • UT-2 +8.7 Celeste Maloy
  • FL-24 −8.6 Frederica Wilson
  • TX-27 −8.5 Michael Cloud
  • NC-1 +8.4 Don Davis
  • NC-3 −8.3 Greg Murphy
  • OH-8 −8.1 Warren Davidson
  • TX-4 −7.9 Pat Fallon
  • TX-17 −7.5 Pete Sessions
  • TX-37 −7.3 Lloyd Doggett
  • TX-20 −7.2 Joaquin Castro
  • CA-32 +6.3 Brad Sherman
  • TX-8 −6.3 Morgan Luttrell
  • FL-8 −6.1 Mike Haridopolos
  • CA-47 −5.9 Dave Min
  • CA-27 −5.8 George Whitesides
  • OH-4 +5.8 Jim Jordan
  • UT-4 +5.8 Burgess Owens
  • TX-34 +5.7 Vicente Gonzalez
  • AL-7 +5.6 Terri Sewell
  • TX-6 −5.6 Jake Ellzey
  • CA-6 +5.5 Ami Bera
  • OH-5 −5.5 Bob Latta
  • TX-5 −5.5 Lance Gooden
  • OH-2 −5.4 David Taylor
  • TN-5 +5.3 Andy Ogles
  • CA-51 +5.2 Sara Jacobs
  • CA-31 +4.7 Gil Cisneros
  • CA-49 −4.3 Mike Levin
  • AL-6 −4.0 Gary Palmer
  • CA-22 −3.9 David Valadao
  • OH-9 +3.9 Marcy Kaptur
  • CA-38 +3.8 Linda Sanchez
  • CA-52 +3.6 Juan Vargas
  • CA-25 −3.3 Raul Ruiz
  • OH-13 −3.3 Emilia Sykes
  • TX-3 +3.3 Keith Self
  • TX-28 +3.1 Henry Cuellar
  • CA-5 +3.0 Tom McClintock
  • TX-22 +2.8 Troy Nehls
  • OH-12 −2.6 Troy Balderson
  • TX-7 −2.6 Lizzie Fletcher
  • CA-23 +2.5 Jay Obernolte
  • CA-35 +2.5 Norma Torres
  • OH-14 +2.5 Dave Joyce
  • CA-45 −2.4 Derek Tran
  • FL-20 +2.4 VacantVacant at the redrawSheila Cherfilus-McCormick, whose term ended April 21, 2026. No member held this district on the day the map changed.
  • D+50EVENR+50 MOVE MEMBER AT THE REDRAWThe member at the redrawWhere the member has since retired or is running elsewhere, the name is still theirs — the district is what changed.
  • LA-5 −2.3 Julia Letlow
  • CA-21 −2.2 Jim Costa
  • TX-10 −2.2 Michael McCaul
  • CA-26 −2.1 Julia Brownley
  • OH-10 +2.1 Mike Turner
  • CA-20 +1.9 Vince Fong
  • FL-16 −1.8 Vern Buchanan
  • FL-17 −1.8 Greg Steube
  • TX-1 −1.8 Nathaniel Moran
  • TX-21 −1.8 Chip Roy
  • CA-28 +1.6 Judy Chu
  • TX-13 −1.6 Ronny Jackson
  • CA-46 +1.5 Lou Correa
  • CA-44 −1.4 Nanette Barragan
  • FL-13 +1.4 Anna Paulina Luna
  • TX-31 −1.4 John Carter
  • FL-10 −1.3 Maxwell Frost
  • TX-12 +1.3 Craig Goldman
  • CA-29 +1.2 Luz Rivas
  • CA-17 −1.1 Ro Khanna
  • CA-30 +1.1 Laura Friedman
  • CA-33 −1.1 Pete Aguilar
  • CA-18 +1.0 Zoe Lofgren
  • FL-19 +1.0 Byron Donalds
  • TX-2 −1.0 Dan Crenshaw
  • TX-33 +1.0 Marc Veasey
  • OH-6 +0.9 Michael Rulli
  • OH-15 +0.8 Mike Carey
  • TX-23 −0.7 Tony Gonzales
  • CA-14 +0.6 Eric Swalwell
  • FL-11 −0.6 Daniel Webster
  • TX-24 +0.6 Beth Van Duyne
  • OH-7 +0.5 Max Miller
  • CA-16 +0.4 Sam Liccardo
  • TX-16 −0.4 Veronica Escobar
  • TX-26 +0.4 Brandon Gill
  • CA-10 +0.3 Mark DeSaulnier
  • FL-21 −0.3 Brian Mast
  • LA-1 +0.3 Steve Scalise
  • CA-39 +0.2 Mark Takano
  • TN-3 −0.2 Chuck Fleischmann
  • TX-30 −0.2 Jasmine Crockett
  • TX-38 +0.2 Wesley Hunt
  • CA-24 +0.1 Salud Carbajal
  • FL-27 −0.1 Maria Elvira Salazar
  • FL-28 +0.1 Carlos Gimenez
  • TN-7 +0.1 Matt Van Epps
  • CA-41 New Ken Calvert
  • FL-23 New Jared Moskowitz
  • TN-2 0.0 Tim Burchett
  • TX-15 0.0 Monica De La Cruz

The races to watch

All 435 House races →
MI-4 Michigan 4th DistrictHuizenga (R) defends Toss-up McCann 48¢54¢ Huizenga Market and polls both favor Huizenga.
VA-1 Virginia 1st DistrictWittman (R) defends Toss-up Taylor 54¢48¢ Wittman Market and polls both favor Taylor.
FL-22 Florida 22nd DistrictOpen seat · previously D Toss-up Dandiya 55¢44¢ Askar Market favors Dandiya, but polls are even.
IA-2 Iowa 2nd DistrictOpen seat · previously R Toss-up James 57¢44¢ Mitchell Market favors James, but polls favor Mitchell.
NY-17 New York 17th DistrictLawler (R) defends Toss-up Conley 59¢42¢ Lawler Market favors Conley, but polls favor Lawler.
MI-7 Michigan 7th DistrictBarrett (R) defends Toss-up Lawrence 61¢41¢ Barrett Market favors Lawrence, but polls are even.
TX-35 Texas 35th DistrictOpen seat · previously D Toss-up Garcia 62¢39¢ Cruz Market favors Garcia, but polls favor Cruz.
FL-27 Florida 27th DistrictSalazar (R) defends Lean R to Toss-up Rodriguez 36¢64¢ Salazar Market and polls both favor Salazar.
PA-1 Pennsylvania 1st DistrictFitzpatrick (R) defends Toss-up Harvie 37¢64¢ Fitzpatrick Market and polls both favor Fitzpatrick.
IA-3 Iowa 3rd DistrictNunn (R) defends Toss-up Garriott 79¢23¢ Nunn Market favors Garriott, but polls favor Nunn.
WI-1 Wisconsin 1st DistrictSteil (R) defends Lean R Berman 36¢64¢ Steil Market and polls both favor Steil.
MI-10 Michigan 10th DistrictOpen seat · previously R · Democrats favoured to flip Lean D Hines 66¢35¢ Bouchard Market favors Hines, but polls favor Bouchard.