Montana 1st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 8-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 61¢ today.

Toss-up

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Toss-upR 61¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Lean RR+7.68 in 2024.

Signal clarityLow — no pollingas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 61¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

Impact Research ↗ B Jun 22 - 25 · n=500 LV EVEN D SPONSOR

UpSwing Research ↗ Apr 30 - May 5 · n=401 LV R+5 D SPONSOR

Peak Insights ↗ Jan 12 - 15 · n=400 LV R+10 R SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+7.68

Ryan K. Zinke (R)

52.29 — 44.62 · 2024 general election

def. Monica Tranel (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.1 to 1

Sam Forstag$1.38M

Aaron Flint$1.30M

PULLED 08-22 · PERIOD 06-10 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.