FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: an 8-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 72¢ today.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upD+1 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 24).Prior result · Lean RR+7.68 in 2024.Market · Lean RR 72¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.PollsD+12024 resultR+7.7MarketR 72¢
MarketR 72¢PollsD+12024R+7.7
Market favors Flint, but polls favor Forstag.
The market moved 6¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
PPP ↗BSep 9 to 10 · n=536 RVD+2The Bench sponsorD+2 · The Bench sponsor · counts as EVEN at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; the two campaigns have raised about the same, so fundraising takes no place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.