Virginia 9th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 45-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 99.5¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe RR 99.5¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+45.16 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 4¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 99.5¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+45.16

H. Morgan Griffith (R)

72.49 — 27.33 · 2024 general election

def. Karen G. H. Baker (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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H. Morgan Griffith$1.83M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.