Arizona Attorney General — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — decided by less than a point in 2022, priced at 77¢ today.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean DD 77¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+2.9 — NextGen Polling, Aug 19.Prior result · Toss-upD+0 in 2022.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 77¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+2.9

NextGen Polling ↗ 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-19 · n=1,627 RV D+2.9 INDEPENDENT

HighGround Public Affairs ↗ 2026-08-15 to 2026-08-18 · n=400 LV D+8 PARTISAN

Noble Predictive Insights ↗ 2026-08-10 to 2026-08-13 · n=923 LV D+6 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+0

Kris Mayes (D)

50 — 50 · 2022 general election

def. Abraham Hamadeh (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Kris Mayes$1.62M

Warren Petersen$259.2K

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 07-21 · STATE FILING

Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.