New Mexico Governor
OPEN SEAT
Also on the ballot: Ken Miyagishima (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market and the latest general-election poll carry this seat — New Mexico has no verified prior result on file.
Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 95.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+17 — BSP Research, Aug 22.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 4¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 16 points toward the Democrat over 38 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 95.9¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+17
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
—
No verified prior result
The last general election in this seat has not been imported from an official state canvass, so the signal has no baseline.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
—
No comparable filings from both major-party nominees.