DEFENDED SEATLean DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It's still the Bakersfield-area district, but its Central Valley electorate changes. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +5.8 to Trump +1.9 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
David G. Valadao (R) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialR+5.8→R+1.9Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+5.8) and the new (R+1.9). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 91.9¢ Democratic.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 91.9¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upD+2 (Tulchin Research (adjusted), Jun 21).Prior result · Lean RR+6.8 in 2024.MarketD 91.9¢PollsD+22024 resultR+6.8
MarketD 91.9¢PollsD+22024R+6.8
Market and polls both favor Villegas.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
D+2
Tulchin Research ↗B-Jun 15 to 21 · n=800 LVD+4House Majority PAC sponsorD+4 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as D+2 at half weight
The latest poll on file. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+6.8
David G. Valadao (R)
53.4% to 46.6% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It's still the Bakersfield-area district, but its Central Valley electorate changes. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +5.8 to Trump +1.9 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Rudy Salas (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Valadao leads 1.8 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.