California 22nd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 7 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 89¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+4 — Tulchin Research, Jul 21.Prior result · Lean RR+6.8 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 89¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+4

Tulchin Research ↗ B- Jun 15 - 21 · n=800 LV D+4 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+6.8

David G. Valadao (R)

53.4 — 46.6 · 2024 general election

def. Rudy Salas (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.9 to 1

Randy Villegas$2.65M

David G. Valadao$4.93M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.