Florida 9th District

DEFENDED SEATLean RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It now stretches from Orlando and Kissimmee into Indian River County and other interior counties. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +3.5 to Trump +17.8 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

Darren Soto (D) has held this seat since 2017 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in May 2026.

PresidentialD+3.5→R+17.8Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+3.5) and the new (R+17.8). Same ballots, new map.

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 72¢ Republican.

Lean R

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Prior result · Likely DD+12.55 in 2024.Polling · Toss-upR+2 (SEA Polling (adjusted), Aug 30).Market · Lean RR 72¢: traders' price for a Republican win, a flip from Democratic.

Market and polls both favor Green.

As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 72¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

R+2

SEA Polling ↗ B+ Aug 24 to 30 · n=400 LV EVEN Soto sponsor EVEN · Soto sponsor · counts as R+2 at half weight

The latest poll on file. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

D+12.6

Darren Soto (D)

55.1% to 42.6% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It now stretches from Orlando and Kissimmee into Indian River County and other interior counties. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +3.5 to Trump +17.8 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

def. Thomas Chalifoux (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

1.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026 · thru Jul 29

Darren Soto$2.16M ↗$1.19M cash

Dan Green$1.30M ↗$363.2K cash

Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 29, 2026; Soto leads 1.6 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.