Florida 9th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Democratic by 13 points in 2024 is now priced for the Republican.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Likely DD+12.55 in 2024.Market · Lean RR 71¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityLow — prior and market disagreeas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 8¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 71¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+12.55

Darren Soto (D)

55.13 — 42.58 · 2024 general election

def. Thomas Chalifoux (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.7 to 1

Darren Soto$2.16M

Dan Green$1.30M

PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 01-11 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.