Texas 14th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 37-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 96¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean RR 36.26-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 96¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+37.38 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 96¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+37.38

Randy K. Weber, Sr. (R)

68.69 — 31.31 · 2024 general election

def. Rhonda Hart (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 36.26 to 1

Thurman Bartie$26.8K

Randy K. Weber, Sr.$972.6K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.